It has been over a month since i last posted. I apologise but i was on a very relaxing vacation.
The US election has been defying every pollster and pundit every week. Since Obama's win in Iowa and Hillary's win in New Hampshire everyone simply said that Super Tuesday would define a candidate.
Super Tuesday is when more than 22 states hold their primaries and is traditionally a nod to the future nominee of each party. John McCain is the expected nominee with Mitt Romney pulling out and Huckabee too far behind to be a significant threat. However Huckabee's continued presence in the Republican primaries is evident that the conservative base does not trust McCain with their nomination just yet.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton however are in a very tight race. Whilst Obama won more states he did not win the large delegates. Clinton won fewer states than Obama but won the states with the larger delegates. It appears that whilst more states liked Obama the electoral college swings in favour of Clinton.
The recent primaries held today in Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C had Obama taking all of the delegates. It appears now that Obama has surpassed Clinton by 107 delegates. Whilst this is not a huge number of delegates it is important as it shows that the Obama-train is full steam ahead. With this momentum he won't have much trouble unseating Clinton in the next primary. Whilst i'm hesitant to call these primaries, considering everything that has been polled, i'm quite certain that Clinton will win several more primaries in the near future. However with Obama's momentum and the fact that his campaign is receiving over a million dollars a day in support (clinton's is around half that) and the free media exposure it is obvious that Barack Obama was the (no-pun intended) dark horse of the 2008 Presidential race. No one expected him to make a dent in the race but he has surprised us all. What we are seeing today and will continue to see in the future is the audacity of hope. A people so tired of two terms of Bush (and possibly afraid of another term of Clinton) that they will latch on to the charismatic leadership of a man demanding change for the people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charismatic_authority
Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Why everyone got it wrong!
In the wake of the Clinton win in New Hampshire last night it seems that everyone is taking a closer look at the polls and wondering where they failed.
Many polls predicted an Obama landslide a'la Iowa but ended with Clinton winning by 3 points.
Does this mean that polls are unreliable, that we shouldn't trust them?
Many candidates and skeptical members of the public take polling data with a grain of salt. There are many variables that have to be taken into consideration when reading a poll. When the pollster called? Which member of the house they were speaking to? The gender? The skin colour? etc etc etc
Any number of these variables can skew a poll. The pollsters shut down their data collection services around 36 hours before the voting began. Doing that was a mistake because they missed the one event that changed this primary:
The tears almost shed by Hillary Clinton led to an outpouring of emotion from women and the elderly who drowned their sorrows in the voting booths by ticking the name 'Hillary Clinton'. Clinton, who was always lambasted for being to steely and never showing any emotion, won over these voters in the 36 hours that the polling booths were shut down. In this day and age of instant news it's well known that a single event can change the outcome of an election and this was that event. Polls should be open until the voters walk through the front door. After that they should conduct exit polls. Here's Hillary's victory speech, she seems as surprised as anyone else in the room:
I'm sure that polling will be scrutinized a great deal over the next several primaries up to Super Tuesday. I'm sure Barack Obama is feeling awful, he was floating on a cloud and a sure thing for the New Hampshire primary. As i stated in a previous post i'm sure that Obama will make an amazing president once he's had some on-the-job training, hopefully as Hillary's VP. I only hope that he realizes this before he gets too big for his own boots and implodes; denying America of an astounding politician.
Many polls predicted an Obama landslide a'la Iowa but ended with Clinton winning by 3 points.
Does this mean that polls are unreliable, that we shouldn't trust them?
Many candidates and skeptical members of the public take polling data with a grain of salt. There are many variables that have to be taken into consideration when reading a poll. When the pollster called? Which member of the house they were speaking to? The gender? The skin colour? etc etc etc
Any number of these variables can skew a poll. The pollsters shut down their data collection services around 36 hours before the voting began. Doing that was a mistake because they missed the one event that changed this primary:
The tears almost shed by Hillary Clinton led to an outpouring of emotion from women and the elderly who drowned their sorrows in the voting booths by ticking the name 'Hillary Clinton'. Clinton, who was always lambasted for being to steely and never showing any emotion, won over these voters in the 36 hours that the polling booths were shut down. In this day and age of instant news it's well known that a single event can change the outcome of an election and this was that event. Polls should be open until the voters walk through the front door. After that they should conduct exit polls. Here's Hillary's victory speech, she seems as surprised as anyone else in the room:
I'm sure that polling will be scrutinized a great deal over the next several primaries up to Super Tuesday. I'm sure Barack Obama is feeling awful, he was floating on a cloud and a sure thing for the New Hampshire primary. As i stated in a previous post i'm sure that Obama will make an amazing president once he's had some on-the-job training, hopefully as Hillary's VP. I only hope that he realizes this before he gets too big for his own boots and implodes; denying America of an astounding politician.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
New Hampshire
Well for the last few hours i've been sitting at my computer addicted to the drudgereport. John McCain was an early call, beating Mitt Romney by several points but Clinton and Obama were within 2-3% of each other for about 2 hours. Drudge is calling it for Hillary Clinton so i send her all the congratulations i can. To Barack Obama i only hope that this doesn't deflate the wind from your sails.
Lets see what happens come Super Tuesday.
Lets see what happens come Super Tuesday.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Barack Obama
It's hard not to be swept up in Obama-mania.
He's just won the Iowa caucus and is giving a rousing speech thanking the people for having faith in him.
Here is a charismatic young man who has overcome the adversity of youth, financial difficulties and most importantly the colour of his skin. He's 20 years younger than his nearest Democratic rival and is a graduate of Harvard Law School. The man gives an amazing speech.
He will make an amazing president. Just not yet.
If Obama would accept the Vice President under Hillary Clinton (who has a wealth of foreign policy experience) it will remove all political taboos in the country. There will no longer be old, white, men running the country. With Hillary improving America's relations overseas and Obama taking care of the domestic front i'm sure that over the next 16 years of Democratic rule in the White House (8 for Hillary, 8 for Obama) i'm sure that America will be improved.
However, if Obama were to win presidency then i'm sure that he would surround himself with the best and the brightest of all the administration, including Hillary. I'm sure she'd make an amazing Secretary of State :)
He's just won the Iowa caucus and is giving a rousing speech thanking the people for having faith in him.
Here is a charismatic young man who has overcome the adversity of youth, financial difficulties and most importantly the colour of his skin. He's 20 years younger than his nearest Democratic rival and is a graduate of Harvard Law School. The man gives an amazing speech.
He will make an amazing president. Just not yet.
If Obama would accept the Vice President under Hillary Clinton (who has a wealth of foreign policy experience) it will remove all political taboos in the country. There will no longer be old, white, men running the country. With Hillary improving America's relations overseas and Obama taking care of the domestic front i'm sure that over the next 16 years of Democratic rule in the White House (8 for Hillary, 8 for Obama) i'm sure that America will be improved.
However, if Obama were to win presidency then i'm sure that he would surround himself with the best and the brightest of all the administration, including Hillary. I'm sure she'd make an amazing Secretary of State :)
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