Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Why Iraq will be seen as a failure in the War on Terror.

Make no mistake about it. We are at war with terror and our enemy is fanatical in their belief, battle-hardened and will stop at nothing to achieve their goals. George Bush is without a doubt the worst president in history (I include William Henry Harrison who died within 30 days of taking office, at least he taught people not to give long speeches in the rain) and the effect of his presidency will have unknown consequences for years to come.
However, Saddam Hussein was a danger and he was pursuing Weapons of Mass Destruction along with funding terrorism in the Occupied Territories which created instability in the region but an invasion was not the correct course of action. We've currently been in Iraq for 4 years and upon careful consideration I understand why the Bush administration was pushing for regime change in the country. Saddam had constantly flouted international sanctions and whilst he did not have WMD's at the current time there was evidence presented to Congress during David Kay's briefing in 2004 that Iraqi scientists had deliberately misled UN weapon inspectors due to fear from the Hussein regime. With intelligence pointing towards a covert build up on WMD’s and a mad-man who had no respect for the rule of law (including terrorizing his own citizens and torturing political prisoners) the US saw little option but regime change and I support that.
However, the War on Terror cannot be fought by an army. To instil regime change (as is quietly being done in Iran) you must first support a pro-democratic group through funding and intelligence. After supplying the pro-democratic group with enough intelligence and weaponry allow them to quickly and quietly remove any remnants of the tyrannical regime that stood before it. When the citizen’s wake the next day there will be a pro-democratic government and trade can resume with sanctions being lifted. Political prisoners would be released, a constitution would be drafted which focused on ensuring civil liberties and human rights were paramount and restricting governments to 4 years or less in order to ensure that governments could be overthrown via legal and legitimate elections.
These measures would ensure that there were limited civilian casualties during the period of transition and eventually the new government would gain international recognition and another democracy would be born.
This method is of course a best case scenario and it could lead to many different paths, some good and some bad but it is the way that the War on Terror will be won. Notice that in this scenario there is no mention of a foreign military presence and no need for hundreds of thousands of troops. The War on Terror will be fought quietly and it will take longer than any war fought in the last century. When we eventually prevail there will be no victory parade with confetti covering the troops or monument of soldiers raising an American flag because this war will be fought in the shadows and the warriors will be the smartest and the toughest that the West has ever produced. This war will be fought by the spies and the battlefield won’t be troops moving from house to house but a lone man with a silenced pistol in an alleyway. To quote the 1998 movie The Siege "The army is a broadsword and what you need is a scalpel". America may prevail in Iraq, crush the insurgents and install a peaceful, democratic government but Iraq is and will always be considered a failure in the War on Terror. It has led to the deaths of tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi's (this number is very difficult to determine due to the ease that insurgent forces have of passing themselves off as civilians) and over a thousand US and British lives that could have been averted.
Terrorism cannot be fought by an army; despite painful efforts to keep civilian deaths to a minimum, innocent people will die during aerial bombings which in turn will increase animosity to the Western World and create a never-ending cycle of violence. Carefully planned targeted assassinations dramatically reduce the amount of civilian casualties and hopefully in the years to come the scalpel that are the intelligence services of the Western World will finally eradicate those that threaten our freedoms and democracy.

8 comments:

Sheldon said...

You're right in saying that the war on terror will not be solved by an army, however for the moment it must be fought by an army.

I agree that the war will end when democratic institutions are established but until Iraq is rid of insurgents who wish to undermine this the army must keep fighting.

I also dispute your assertion that Bush is the worst president in histtory. It has become fashionable to hate him. Yet after September 11 when he took a stand on terrorism America has been free of attacks. I think he has done the right thing in taking a strong stand against terrorism.

Raffe Gold said...

Whilst he took a stand on terrorism I would have expected any leader that was faced with the severity of those attacks to do the same. Whilst Bush may be a strong leader he's also degraded civil liberties and freedom of the press whilst at the same time touting to the world of the values of a democratic government. Bush is not the most evil man in the world, far from it, however when it comes to comparisons of US president's he will appear down the bottom. The disadvantage of being President is that you're held to the absolute highest regard in all situations and that is always a problem for politicians :)

M said...

Your discussion about how to set off regime change is outrageously simplistic and idealistic.

The fundemental problem is that people expect regime change and a swift move to some form of democracy to happen overnight. Of over a decade. It took long hard wars and in many cases dozens or hundreds of years for democracy to fully take shape in the West - to move from monarchy to constitutional monarchy. We can expect nothing less in the Middle East unfortunately because the leaders are equally as brutal, there is a culture of totalitarianism and violence among the people, and democracy is a dirty word.

Democracy is the way to go. It PROBABLY can't happen militarily (though maybe - one failed attempt doesnt discredit the entire enterprise). However, stomaching gross oppression in the ME for so many more years may not be possible. Nor allowing the violent and war-mongering tendencies that go hand in hand with dictatorship to permeate and affect us in the West.

So we are stuck in a position where it is TOUGH and EXPENSIVE to free the people of the ME. And yet it is impossible to sit back ad let them rot - and to attack us.

So YOU tell me what to do.

Raffe Gold said...

Yes it's idealistic and simplistic (I made note of that in the post) and I do understand the hardships, namely that we are an extraordinarily impatient people. It took hundreds of years and a civil war for America to become a democracy. What I was trying to point out was another course of action should we ever have to promote regime change (which i'm sure we will) and the failure of military options in winning the War on Terror.

M said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
M said...

oh and i forgot to say that the thing is that the US IS using the soft intervention you refer to - funding rebellions, gathering/supplying intelligence etc and has been doing so across the globe since the early days of the Cold War. They have been doing it in Iran for a while. But the thing is that that is often not enough.

Further more Raffe, you are very much isolated in your view supporting this as opposed to military intervention. Most people against military intervention are also against the sort of intervention you support. partly because a lot fo the time it ends up in cacaphonic blood baths anyway - look at South America.

Ivanski said...

This is an extremely difficult issue. If the Americans pull out now then there is little doubt that Iraq will be split between Shia, Sunni and Kurdish states. With Iran supporting the Shias, while the Saudi will be desperately trying to fend them off by helping the Sunnis. This could potentially escalate into a regional conflict which would be beyond disasterous it would definetly help terrorist extremist causes in the region and in the rest of the world and I fear what might happen with the almost assure impending regime change in the USA. I think it was incorrect to go into Iraq in the first place and in the manner in which they did however and with seemingly very unclear objectives. Surely pushing for a regime change or through covert action would have been more appropriate. But now they have to stay the distance and at least stabilise the situation on the ground while pushing for dialogue with the Arab states and Iran because that's only long term solution that I can see. What do you think?

Raffe Gold said...

Ivan,
Like you I actually believe that now we're in Iraq it's not a wise move to withdraw. Much like they did with some of the smaller province they need to have a complete monopoly of force and violence. Increasing troop levels from the current 200,000 or so to between 750,000 to 1 million would be the best thing to do. Granted it's extreme and will need a major international coalition it's the only thing that can be done to crush the insurgency. Once the insurgency has been destroyed then we can rebuild Iraq along with hearts and minds :)